How to read an economic calendar
An economic calendar shows the time and importance of upcoming data releases and decisions, with their previous, expected and actual values, in a single table. What markets react to is often not the figure itself but how far the actual value differs from the forecast. In crypto, which trades 24/7, that reaction shows on the chart the moment the figure is released.
What is an economic calendar?
Data such as inflation, jobs and growth, and Fed rate decisions, are released on set days and at set times. An economic calendar is the table that lists these releases by date and time. Each row is one event: what will be released, when, and what the market expects.
A calendar is not a forecasting tool; it only shows when, and against what, a reaction may come. The site's Weekly events page lists the week's main events in the same way.
What the columns tell you
- Time: when the release comes out. On this site times are given in UTC.
- Event: the figure or decision being released, often with its unit, such as the monthly or yearly change.
- Impact: a rough grade (low, medium, high) of how much the event might move markets. It is the calendar provider's judgement, not a measured value.
- Previous: the figure for the prior period. Some data are revised later; this column may show the revised value.
- Forecast (consensus): the common expectation compiled from economists' estimates. It can differ slightly between sources.
- Actual: the value filled in at the release. The surprise is read by comparing it with the forecast.
Surprises and revisions
The surprise is the difference between the actual value and the forecast. Because the forecast may already be reflected in price, markets often react not to whether a figure is high or low but to how far it differs from expectations. A figure close to the forecast can see a limited reaction, however important the release.
A revision to the previous figure can change the picture too. Even if the actual value matches the forecast, a clear upward or downward revision to the prior month can make the release read differently overall. Some releases carry more than one number (for example headline and core inflation, or the monthly and yearly change), and these can miss in different directions.
Times and daylight saving
Most US data are released at 08:30 US Eastern Time (ET). While the US is on daylight saving time this is 12:30 UTC, and in winter it is 13:30 UTC. The Fed decision comes at 14:00 ET, which is 18:00 UTC in summer and 19:00 UTC in winter.
In the US, daylight saving starts on the second Sunday in March and ends on the first Sunday in November. Europe changes on different dates, so for a few weeks a year the usual time differences shift. Keeping this in mind with a calendar in UTC means waiting for the event at the right time.
The crypto chart at the moment of release
- Crypto trades 24/7, so it reacts to a release immediately; there is no closed session in between.
- In the minutes before a release, trading often thins out and price can stay in a narrow range.
- At the release, liquidity thins and price can leave long wicks in both directions within a short time.
- The first move may not hold; the direction of the first minutes can reverse later. Reading the reaction from the close of the 1H or 4H candle gives a calmer measure.
The size and direction of the reaction differ each time. The same release can see a strong reaction in one period and a limited one in another; what the market is focused on at the time is what matters.
What it shows, what it does not prove
What it shows
- Which events will be released when, and what the market expects
- How far the actual value differs from the forecast
- At which times volatility may rise
What it does not prove
- Which way price will move after the release
- That a surprise always brings a reaction in the same direction
- That the impact grade decides the size of the move on the day
The MarketLevelMap view
How it relates to zones
During a high-impact release, price can briefly wick beyond a support or resistance zone. Reading the zone as a band rather than a single line, and judging a breakout by the candle close after the release, helps separate these brief moves from a breakout.
If price goes into an important release right next to a zone, the release may be the moment the zone is tested. The calendar shows which event a reaction at a zone coincided with.
Often confused with
- Priced in: why expectations matterThe calendar shows the expectation; expectations being reflected in price beforehand explains why the surprise is the main source of the reaction.
- What is volatility? Contracting and expanding rangesVolatility can rise around release times, but high volatility on its own carries no information about direction.
For general information only. Not investment advice.Last updated: