Jobs data (nonfarm payrolls, jobless claims)
US jobs data shows how strong the labour market is. The most watched release is the monthly nonfarm payrolls report; weekly jobless claims give a more frequent reading in between. Markets usually read these figures through their likely effect on the Fed's rate decisions.
What is the nonfarm payrolls report?
Officially called the Employment Situation report, it is published monthly by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), part of the US Department of Labor. It is usually released on the first Friday of the month at 08:30 US Eastern time. Depending on US daylight saving time, that is 12:30 or 13:30 UTC. Holidays and the calendar can shift the date now and then.
The report rests on two separate surveys. The establishment survey measures how many jobs were added outside farming in the month, and wages. The household survey gives the unemployment rate. Because the two surveys use different methods, they can sometimes paint different pictures.
The main figures in the report
- Nonfarm payrolls (NFP): the number of jobs added or lost since the previous month. This is the headline figure.
- Unemployment rate: the share of the labour force looking for work but not finding it. Given as a percentage; even small changes draw attention.
- Average hourly earnings: shows wage growth. Watched separately because it hints at inflation pressure.
- Revisions: each report also updates the payroll figures for the previous two months. A large revision can change how the new month's figure is seen.
Markets react to the figures as a whole, not to a single number. A strong headline that comes with downward revisions or a rising unemployment rate can bring a mixed reaction.
Weekly claims and other releases
Initial jobless claims are published by the US Department of Labor every Thursday at 08:30 US Eastern time. They show how many people filed for unemployment benefits for the first time in a week. Because the weekly figure is noisy, the four-week average and continuing claims are watched too.
The JOLTS report is a monthly BLS release on job openings and people leaving jobs; it runs about a month behind. The ADP report is an estimate a private company builds from its own payroll data. It does not measure the same thing as the official report, and the two figures can differ widely.
Why the data is read through Fed expectations
Markets read the figure against the forecast (consensus), not on its own. In crypto the reaction usually comes through rate expectations, the dollar and risk appetite. The cards below are common tendencies, not rules.
Stronger than expected
Can be read as the Fed delaying rate cuts. If Treasury yields and the dollar rise, risk assets can come under pressure.
Weaker than expected
Can strengthen expectations of earlier or larger rate cuts. If yields and the dollar ease, risk assets can find support.
Very weak or mixed
Clear weakness can also be read as a growth or recession worry. Then weak data can weigh on risk assets instead of supporting them.
What it shows, what it does not prove
What it shows
- The overall picture of the labour market that month, and its direction against previous months
- How far the figure differed from the market's forecast
- Why volatility rises at the moment of release
What it does not prove
- What the Fed will decide at its next meeting
- Which way price will move for good after the release
- That the first published figure is final; revisions can change the picture
The MarketLevelMap view
How it relates to zones
At the moment of release price can move sharply both ways within a short time. The long wicks this leaves can reach into and back out of a nearby support or resistance zone. Reading the zone as a band rather than a single line helps to tell these sudden wicks apart from a breakout.
It is sounder to look at the release candle's close and the next candles than at its wick. A move that looks sharp on the 1H chart can be a single wick inside the zone on the 4H or daily chart.
Often confused with
For general information only. Not investment advice.Last updated: